Behind the façade, which has fooled many economists, journalists and politicians, China’s economy is driven by a fragile communist system full of contradictions and untold suffering.

The new tariffs have ignited a trade war causing stock and bond markets to, as one client observed, “bounce around like a bobcat in a bag of bullfrogs.” Meanwhile, politicians and the media have been keen to weigh-in, increasing investor uncertainty. 

This week’s update is an excerpt of page one from our newly published Quarterly Investment Outlook, available here.

There are growing indications that consumer retail is slowing. Recent reports highlight weaker-than-expected retail sales, particularly declines observed in January, suggesting a pullback in consumer spending.

Today, there are clear parallels between the dot-com bubble and the AI revolution. Nvidia came into 2025 priced at 30 times sales revenue, which requires virtually unheard of long term growth to justify its current price.

In part one of this series, I introduced the case that we are in the early stages of a “new world order,” and in part two, I focused on two of the five “big forces” explained by Ray Dalio. This week, I will discuss the other three big forces.

This week I want to discuss in more detail how we are thinking about the changing world order.  For an introduction, please read Part 1 here.

A number of analysts we follow have presented a compelling case that we are in the early stages of a “new world order,” that will include major societal, economic and geopolitical changes that will have major impacts on our everyday lives and our investments.

There is bipartisan recognition that the $36.5 trillion federal deficit represents an impending crisis and the Trump Administration has devised a plan to address it.

According to the Buffett Indicator, stocks are extremely expensive today. What does it mean for investors?